[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 05 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AT 0300 UTC...A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
ALONG 82W FROM CUBA JUST W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO PANAMA.
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N79W
TO 21N81W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 81W-85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 12N77W TO 15N82W WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY
INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND THERE ARE NO
SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 8 TO 13
KT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF AFRICA AND IS ALONG 17N S OF 18N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS TRAILING A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 12N42W TO 3N44W MOVING W 5-10 KT. WAVE IS
AT THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 41W-43W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 20N57W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA TO 10N63W
MOVING NW 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER
RIDGE ENHANCING THE CONVECTION AND THE TILT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N18W 4N32W 6N42W 5N52W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ ALONG 53W/54W S OF 10N TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 6N51W TO 9N56W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 31W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
22W-29W...FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 31W-38W...AND FROM 7N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 41W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N ACROSS
TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W GULF W OF
A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S MEXICO
NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO
THE W ATLC COVERING THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 90W. AN UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF AND
INDUCING A NARROW INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JUST E
OF VERA CRUZ MEXICO TO NEAR 26N92W. AT 0300 UTC...A 1011 MB
SURFACE LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF NEAR 28N90W WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE N FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE W ATLC N
OF CEDAR KEY OVER APALACHICOLA BAY TO THE 1011 MB LOW. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO JUST INLAND OVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF 92W TO OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 25N E OF 85W TO OVER
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. MODERATE/
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERS MOST OF THE W GULF
LEAVING THE AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN CONCERN TONIGHT IS THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W
CARIBBEAN. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N82W DOMINATING THE AREA W OF
70W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC
COVERING THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S
OF 11N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA AND OVER SW
HAITI FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 71W-75W. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE
LESSER ANTILLES. THIS LEAVES THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN UNDER
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO NEAR 28N W OF 55W SUPPORTING A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N57W SW TO 27N64W WHERE IT BECOMES
STATIONARY ALONG 29N77W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA BETWEEN DAYTONA
BEACH AND ST. AUGUSTINE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT E OF 60W AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT W
OF 68W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE BROAD UPPER
RIDGE COVERING THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC TO 25N W
OF 70W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 25N ACROSS
CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS
ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS NEAR 13N55W EXTENDING TO 23N BETWEEN
43W-64W INCLUDING THE E CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES. A WEAK UPPER LOW
IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N50W WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF MOROCCO
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR 20N35W. A
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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