[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050042 CCB
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN...FROM
WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN HONDURAS
NEAR 15N84W...CONTINUING INTO THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC.
THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF CONSIDERABLY HIGH VALUES OF
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER. FURTHERMORE...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO
INDICATES HIGH VALUES OF MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE ENCOMPASSING THE WAVE. BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS AND MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN ON THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM. CURRENT WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS AND COMPUTER MODEL DATA SUGGEST CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW INTO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR MORE INFORMATION
AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W FROM 2N TO 11N MOVING W 5-10 KT. THIS
IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SOME WEAK
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED ON INFRA-RED IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK
TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N55W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
VENEZUELA NEAR 8N65W MOVING W 15-10 KT. THIS WAVE IS FOUND ON
THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF ELEVATED VALUES OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER...JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 10N.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF SENEGAL
NEAR 13N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 7N30W 8N40W 6N50W 7N60W.
ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 170 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SMALL BUT WELL ORGANIZED 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W SLOWLY MOVING NORTH
APPROACHING THE COASTAL WATERS OF LOUISIANA. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS ENE FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 29N82W...AND CONTINUING EAST INTO THE WEST
ATLANTIC. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM AND LOW CENTER ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NE
GULF...N OF 24N E OF 91W. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SURROUNDED
BY DRY AIR ALOFT TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW. CONSIDERABLE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ELSEWHERE EAST OF
90W...SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE N ALONG WITH THE FRONT BRINGING
CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT
MOVES INLAND BY MONDAY EVENING. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES WNW
INTO THE GULF WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 83W PRODUCING
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO MOST OF THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN W OF 75W. WEATHER CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THIS WAVE
APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. READ OR
SPECIAL FEATURE DISCUSSION ABOVE OR VISIT OUR HOMEPAGE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV FOR MORE INFORMATION AND UPDATES REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...WITH MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXPECTED
TO AFFECT THE FAR E CARIBBEAN AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS IN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. READ OUR TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS REGARDING THIS WAVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC W OF
55W N OF 23N. THE FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM 32N57W SW TO 26N65W WNW
TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 29N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AXIS...AFFECTING THE BAHAMAS N OF 22N.
THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
LOW/SHORTWAVE SPINNING NEAR 386N0W. FURTHER E... A BROAD 1031 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 41N26W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER A WIDE AREA W OF 53W N OF 14N. WITHIN THIS
REGION OF FAIR WEATHER...A LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. A LOW LEVEL WIND SURGE IS FOUND S OF 10N
ALONG 53W..OFF THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA...PRODUCING SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 51W AND 54W. OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO
MOVE E WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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