[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041712
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W DRIFTING W. THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SOME WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
NOTED. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 37W-41W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 19N50W TO INLAND OVER E VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N61W MOVING W 15-10 KT. A LARGE SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 8N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 13N-21N BETWEEN
77W-86W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N16W 7N30W 8N43W 7N59W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W DRIFTING N. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW CENTER ALONG
28N80W 29N87W 27N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60
NM OF LOW AND FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS ALSO AT 27N90W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT. AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 30N100W PRODUCING
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 93W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS
MOST OF TEXAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT TO DRIFT N TO
THE N GULF COAST WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN PRODUCING CONVECTION W
OF JAMAICA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N78W. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS FOR...THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO 27N64W
TO 27N70W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-30N BETWEEN 72W-79W. FURTHER
E... A 1031 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 40N26W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
8N-22N E OF 55W TO W AFRICA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
25N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 18N35W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT OVER THE
W ATLANTIC TO REMAIN STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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