[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041040
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 8N40W TO 3N42W DRIFTING W. WAVE
IS LOW AMPLITUDE AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. WEAK CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 17N51W INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
TO 7N60W MOVING N 15-10 KT. WEAK CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90
NM SE OF THE WAVE AXIS N OF 13N AND WITHIN 150 NM NW OF THE
ENTIRE WAVE AXIS TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 13N76W TO 17N80W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 75W-85W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 11N14W 7N23W 6N33W 8N42W 6N54W
7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 14N TO THE
ITCZ E OF 20W TO JUST INLAND OVER W AFRICA. SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-27W...WITH
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH AMERICA S OF 5N TO THE EQUATOR.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROWING HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM MEXICO N
ACROSS TEXAS TO OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES COVERING THE W
GULF W OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S
MEXICO NEAR VERA CRUZ. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE
US INTO THE W ATLC COVERING THE E GULF WITH A SHORTWAVE
EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PANAMA CITY SW TO NEAR
23N92W. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING...AT 0900 UTC...A 1011
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N90W AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
ACROSS FLORIDA FROM THE W ATLC NEAR TAMPA ALONG 29N86W TO THE
1011 MB LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
26N-30N E OF 90W TO JUST INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF
26N E OF 88W TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BETWEEN 94W-96W. LINES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE STREAMING INLAND OVER THE NW GULF OF W LOUISIANA AND E TEXAS
COVERING THE NW GULF WATERS N OF 26N W OF 90W. REMAINDER OF THE
GULF IS UNDER AN ABUNDANCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N80W
DOMINATES THE AREA W OF 68W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN. THE MOST DOMINATE
SURFACE FEATURE IS THE TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS ABUNDANCE OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER W PANAMA TO NICARAGUA. THE E
CARIBBEAN E OF 70W IS UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR...THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIPS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO NEAR 26N W OF 60W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
AREA NEAR 32N59W SW TO 28N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG
28N76W THEN ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
23N-31N W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A WEAKENING
UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N46W
SW TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 25N51W TO 20N56W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS
OVER THE E ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW OFF THE COAST OF
MOROCCO ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS TO A SECOND UPPER LOW NEAR
17N34W TO NEAR 10N37W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 14N52W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING E TO OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN AND ENHANCING THE TILT OF THE TROPICAL WAVE JUST TO
THE W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE CENTRAL AND E ATLC E OF 55W
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST NE OF THE AZORES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net