[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 032353
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 9N38W ALONG 5N41W TO 2N42W. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VALUES OF TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS.SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N50W TO INLAND NORTH BRAZIL AT
3N61W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 110 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W S OF 19N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. THIS WAVE IS
ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS MOST OF THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN WEST OF 75W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 11N15W...WESTWARD ALONG 10N20W 7N30W 5N40W 7N50W 8N60W.
ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1013 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N88W MOVING WSW. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ENE FROM THE
LOW CENTER...CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N81W...AND
CONTINUING EAST INTO THE WEST ATLANTIC. ALSO...A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE SAME LOW CENTER TO NEAR 25N88W. THIS
COMPLEX SYSTEM IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION TO THE NE QUADRANT OF THE GULF...N OF 24N E OF
91W. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED IN A SHORTWAVE LINGERING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.
CONSIDERABLE MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
BASIN...SUPPORTING BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE
SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST AND THE FRONT WILL DRIFT
NORTH WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 80W. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WEST OF 75W. FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THIS
WAVE...SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED EAST OF 75W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST WITH
CONTINUED CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA OF DISCUSSION THROUGH 32N60W...AND
CONTINUES WEST TO 28N64W...CONTINUING WEST AS STATIONARY TO THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 28N. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N WEST OF 60W. THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM IS
SUPPORTED BY A SHARP UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALONG 62W FROM 30N TO
40N. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N42W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. A LARGE
AREA OF AFRICAN DUST WAS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 8N-22N
E OF 50W TO W AFRICA. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES VERY DRY AND
STABLE AIR ALOFT IN THIS REGION OF SAHARAN AIR. OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS LOOK FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E
WITH CONVECTION LINGERING OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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