[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 3N53W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
50W-60W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 76W S OF 15N MOVING W 15 KT. BROAD
CYCLONIC ROTATION IS OBSERVED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N-17N
BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 11N20W 6N30W 6N40W 9N51W
8N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE
SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 3N-9N BETWEEN
21W-30W... AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 39W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W MOVING W. A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE LOW CENTER ALONG 27N80W
28N86W 27N88W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
NE GULF CENTERED NEAR 27N85W SUPPORTING THE SURFACE LOW AND
FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS NEAR 29N99W
PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W.
CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS
MOST OF TEXAS...THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W TO 90W AND THE
FRONT TO DRIFT N TO N FLORIDA WITH CONTINUED ISOLATED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEE ABOVE. IN
ADDITION... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN ALONG 81W S
OF 16N TO PANAMA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS IN THE VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 15N-19N BETWEEN
77W-82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FURTHER W OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 82W-85W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE WITH
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N
OF 15N E OF 70W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE W WITH CONTINUED
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION TO APPROACH THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS DUE TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N62W TO 28N70W
TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 64W-80W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N42W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
LARGE AREA OF AFRICAN DUST IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
8N-22N E OF 47W TO W AFRICA MOVING W. IN THE UPPER LEVEL... AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
22N55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED FURTHER E NEAR 17N45W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR...THE FRONT OVER THE
W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO 31N57W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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