[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 030002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 02 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W FROM 6N TO 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT.
BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS SEEN ABOUT THE WAVE AXIS IN
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WAVE ALSO LIES AHEAD OF A
MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 42W-48W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS INLAND ACROSS EASTERN COLOMBIA ALONG 73W S OF
12N MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. CYCLONIC FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE
LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD ACROSS LAND. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
WESTERN VENEZUELA FROM BETWEEN 68W-75W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W...WESTWARD ALONG 9N20W 7N30W 8N40W 7N50W 5N60W.
ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS E OF 35W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM
NORTH OF THE AXIS W OF 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE/TROUGH
ENTERING THE NE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT
THAT EXTENDS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 29N83W WESTWARD TO LOUISIANA NEAR 29N89W. A
SURFACE 1015 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED IN THE FRONT NEAR 29N85W.
ALSO...A WEST ATLANTIC SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING WESTWARD
ENTERING THE FAR EASTERN GULF THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS
ALONG 25N81W 23N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION GENERATED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THE SURFACE
LOW...AND THE SURFACE TROUGH...COVERS MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GOLF E OF 93W...AND THE NORTHERN GULF N OF 24N.
20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE NEAR THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER. THIS LOW
IS BEING MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WSW OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA INFLUENCED BY THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SURFACE TROUGH ADVECTING TOWARD FLORIDA FROM THE SE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FROM WESTERN CUBA
NEAR 22N83W TO EASTERN HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN ALONG 80W S OF 14N. ALSO...A
TROPICAL WAVE INLAND OVER COLOMBIA ALONG 73W S OF 12N. THE TWO
SURFACE TROUGHS ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL AMERICA ACCOMPANIED BY
ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE THREE SYSTEMS ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION W OF 73W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
INFLUENCED BY DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC W OF 65W N OF 23N. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N65W TO
28N71W...BECOMING STATIONARY TO THE NRN FLORIDA COAST. THIS
FRONTAL SYSTEM IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE FAR W ATLC N OF 32N W OF 65W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH FROM NEAR 27N78W TO WESTERN
CUBA AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
HAS DRAWN SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE WRN BASIN. SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLC...ANCHORED BY A 1026
MB HIGH NEAR 35N43W PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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