[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2350 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 2100 UTC...TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS CENTERED NEAR 23.2N
101.2W MOVING W NEAR 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ALTHOUGH ALEX IS RAPIDLY WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO...WITH UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. FURTHERMORE...THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS OF AROUND 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS
COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W FROM 2N TO 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-13N BETWEEN 30W-40W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS VENEZUELA ALONG 66W S OF 12N MOVING W
8-12 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 60W-67W.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE WEST AFRICA COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8N12W...WESTWARD ALONG 7N20W 5N30W 9N40W 6N50W 8N60W.
ASIDE AREAS OF CONVECTION RELATED TO TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 10W AND 30W...SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS W OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NRN
AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA
INDICATE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE REGIONS
N OF 25N AND E OF 86W. ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM ALEX IS INLAND
OVER MEXICO AND ITS INTENSITY IS DECREASING RAPIDLY...MUCH OF
THE WRN GULF COAST STATES ARE STILL UNDER A HIGH CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. A TORNADO WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT
IN EXTREME SRN TEXAS. ELSEWHERE...THE SRN GULF AND YUCATAN
PENINSULA ARE DRY AND CLEAR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
MARINE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS UP TO 2O
KT. EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NRN GULF AS
MOISTURE FROM ALEX REMAINS AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SE
CONUS APPROACHES THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED JUST N OF
CUBA WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING TO CENTRAL
AMERICA. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW BASIN N OF 15N W OF 76W INCLUDING
INLAND PORTIONS OF CUBA AND JAMAICA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR AN
EXTENSION OF THE ITCZ ACROSS PANAMA ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN S OF 12N W
OF 76W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 16N74W ACCOMPANIED BY ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SURFACE
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING WIDELY WEAK ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL VENEZUELA S OF 12N IS PRODUCING MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180 NM OFF THE COAST
OF VENEZUELA BETWEEN 60W AND 66W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY DRY STABLE AIR
ALOFT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER THE
FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 24N81W. THIS FEATURE IS PRODUCING
SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS W OF 75W S OF 26N. ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS NEAR 25N60W...FURTHER ENHANCED BY DIFFLUENCE FLOW
ALOFT NOTED FROM 23N TO 30N BETWEEN 54W AND 62W. THIS SCENARIO
IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAME AREA. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N64W ACROSS CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO NEAR
16N74W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN
CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB
HIGH NEAR 34N45W KEEPING WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIR.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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