[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 012033
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 PM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

THE LATEST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW THAT ALEX HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
RAGGED WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER.   IN ADDITION...
THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CENTERS OF ALEX HAVE DECOUPLED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL CENTER MOVING SOUTHWEST AND THE LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATION
FARTHER TO THE NORTH.  ZACATECAS RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SO ALEX WILL STAY A 35-KT TROPICAL
STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.  ALEX WILL FURTHER WEAKEN...THEN PROBABLY
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/11.  THIS GENERAL TRACK IS LIKELY
UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM HAS A LARGE
AREA OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND THE REMNANTS OF ALEX ARE
EXPECTED TO KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND
PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 23.2N 101.2W    35 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0600Z 23.5N 102.9W    25 KT...DISSIPATING INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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