[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 011431
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
1000 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS THAT CLOUD TOPS CONTINUE TO WARM NEAR THE
CENTER OF ALEX.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...AND ALEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY.  THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
MEXICO.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/11.
A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS LIKELY UNTIL DISSIPATION OVERNIGHT...
THEN THE REMNANTS OF ALEX SHOULD MOVE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
NORTHWEST.  THIS SYSTEM...ALONG WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF
MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY KEEP A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/1500Z 23.1N 100.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     02/0000Z 23.0N 102.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


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