[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

AS OF 1200 UTC ALEX HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.
ALEX IS CURRENTLY INLAND NEAR 23.8N 99.8W OR ABOUT 55 MILES W OF
CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO. ALEX IS MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT.
 THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 977 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NOW 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO FROM 30/1500 UTC SHOWED AMOUNTS THAT
WERE RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES IN THE STATES OF
CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO...TO APPROXIMATELY 12 INCHES IN THE STATE
OF OAXACA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE AROUND THE CENTER IN MEXICO FROM 22N TO 25N BETWEEN 98W AND
101W...AND IN TEXAS FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO TO 29N BETWEEN
98W AND 100W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN MEXICO FROM 18N
TO 28N. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
GULF WATERS FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN THE FLORIDA WEST COAST AND
96W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W TO THE SOUTH
OF 15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 29W AND 33W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N
BETWEEN 33W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE PRECIPITATION IN VENEZUELA
FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS DISAPPEARED. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
THAT REMAIN FROM THE EARLIER PRECIPITATION COVER VENEZUELA
FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 63W AND 67W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 7N21W 9N29W 6N43W...INTO
NORTHERN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 17W AND 18W. THIS IS
THE SAME AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT WAS ALONG THE COASTS OF
SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA EIGHT HOURS AGO. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N/33N BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND GEORGIA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANS THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE EAST OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO A 25N79W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM
HURRICANE ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 70W AND 84W. THIS
PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING/WEAKENING/RE-DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS
OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS IN THE OPEN
WATERS. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW APPROACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N57W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N63W AND 14N67W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 25N79W THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 31N19W...TO A CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N43W...TO THE 22N57W CYCLONIC CENTER...
AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W.
WHAT USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW
IS ALONG 63W/64W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 24N63W...TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...TO 13N70W. THE 22N57W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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