[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 010836
TCDAT1
HURRICANE ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL012010
400 AM CDT THU JUL 01 2010

ALEX IS STILL MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND IN A
LARGE CURVED RAINBAND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE DOPPLER RADAR
SUGGEST THAT ALEX HAS WEAKENED...WITH THE EYE BECOMING LESS
DISTINCT AND THE CONVECTIVE TOPS WARMING AND BECOMING LESS SYMMETRIC
AND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 70 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...AND ALEX WILL CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
MOVES FARTHER INLAND. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...260/10.
A STRENGTHENING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL CONTINUE TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD UNTIL
DISSIPATION.  BEYOND THAT TIME...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE
MID-LEVEL REMNANTS OF ALEX SPLITTING...WITH ONE PART MOVING
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...AND ANOTHER PORTION RECURVING
NORTHWARD INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S.
AHEAD OF AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THESE REMNANTS...ALONG
WITH AN ACCOMPANYING SURGE OF MOISTURE...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A
HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IN NORTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL U.S. AFTER THE SURFACE CENTER OF ALEX DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/0900Z 24.0N  99.0W    70 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 23.9N 100.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 24.1N 102.7W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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