[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 010601
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC...

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE ALEX MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO AROUND 01/0200 UTC...IN THE MUNICIPALITY OF
SOTO LA MARINA...WHICH IS ABOUT 110 MILES/180 KM TO THE SOUTH
OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AT
LANDFALL WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 105 MPH/165 KM/HR...MAKING
ALEX A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
WIND SCALE. THE CENTER OF HURRICANE ALEX IS NEAR 24.1N 98.2W
AT 01/0600 UTC. ALEX IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD 9 KT. THIS
POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 35 MILES/60 KM TO THE NORTHWEST OF
LA PESCA MEXICO...AND ABOUT 135 MILES/215 KM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF BROWNSVILLE. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 960 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 85 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 105 KT. RAINFALL TOTALS IN MEXICO FROM 30/1500 UTC
SHOWED AMOUNTS THAT WERE RANGING FROM APPROXIMATELY 8 INCHES
IN THE STATES OF CHIAPAS AND GUERRERO...TO APPROXIMATELY
12 INCHES IN THE STATE OF OAXACA. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE AROUND THE CENTER FROM THE MEXICO COAST AT 22N
TO 27N BETWEEN 97W AND 99W...AND FROM MEXICO INTO SOUTH TEXAS
FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN THE COAST AND 100W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN WESTERN MEXICO FROM 18N TO 23N BETWEEN
101W AND 106W. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF WATERS FROM 27N TO 28N BETWEEN 89W AND 92W. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT3 KNHC...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W TO THE SOUTH OF
15N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF
11N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W IN VENEZUELA.
COMPARATIVELY STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE IN THIS
AREA DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS OR SO. THAT PRECIPITATION BECAME
STRONGER...THE CLOUD TEMPERATURES BECAME WARMER...AND THEN THE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WEAKENED.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N13W TO 7N21W 9N29W 6N43W...INTO
NORTHERN GUYANA AND VENEZUELA NEAR 8N62W. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE COASTLINES OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 12W AND 15W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 46W AND 47W.
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
HURRICANE ALEX DOMINATES THE WEATHER PICTURE. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AWAY FROM ALEX AND COVERS THE REST OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IS TO THE EAST OF ALEX. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N/33N BETWEEN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND MISSISSIPPI. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPANS THE AREA FROM SOUTH
CAROLINA TO MISSISSIPPI. SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
TO THE EAST OF 86W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
APPROACHES FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THANKS TO A 26N78W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW...AT A FAR DISTANCE AWAY FROM
HURRICANE ALEX...COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST AND WEST OF
A LINE FROM CUBA ALONG 80W TOWARD EASTERN HONDURAS. A MIDDLE
LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND
EASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE CENTRAL COAST OF NICARAGUA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN 70W
AND 84W. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING/WEAKENING/RE-DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS OF HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA...AS WELL AS IN
THE OPEN WATERS. A SEPARATE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 22N56W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 17N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO PUERTO
RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W AND 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS
NEAR 26N78W THAT IS IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 70W AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 30N TO
THE WEST OF 69W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF
20N BETWEEN 54W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM ONE
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N20W...TO A CYCLONIC
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N43W...TO THE 22N56W CYCLONIC CENTER...AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N62W. WHAT
USED TO BE THE NORTHERN END OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT NOW IS
ALONG 62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS ALONG 24N63W...TO NORTHWESTERN PUERTO
RICO...TO 13N70W. THE 21N56W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR THIS TROUGH. SHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN
55W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT






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