[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 4N20W 3N30W 3N35W...
TO THE EQUATOR ALONG 48W AT THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 5N BETWEEN
13W AND 51W NEAR NORTHEASTERN COASTAL BRAZIL.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA NOW IS
COMPARATIVELY SHALLOW BECAUSE IT LACKS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
WITH THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. ANY FORM OF UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS WELL INLAND. THE COLD FRONT NOW STRETCHES
FROM NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE EAST-CENTRAL GULF WATERS
NEAR 26N86W...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N90W INTO MEXICO
NEAR 18N92W. GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 94W WITH SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 9 FEET TO 13 FEET. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH IN BELIZE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 89W...
IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BETWEEN 88W AND
90W...AND IN THE EASTERN GULF WATERS FROM 24N TO 25N WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 85W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN
BELIZE TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS
PRECIPITATION TO THE EAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT.
BROAD SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND CENTRAL AMERICA ALONG 85W.
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLUSTERS OF LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W...AND FROM
14N TO 17N BETWEEN 79W AND 83W. OTHER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF 15N60W
17N64W 19N66W...AND FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W
INCLUDING ACROSS THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
GALE-FORCE WIND CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE WEST OF 75W...DUE
TO THE NOW-GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 10N TO THE WEST OF
41W. THIS CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N58W. SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 20W AND 41W. GALE-FORCE
WIND CONDITIONS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED TO THE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN AT LEAST 35W AND 44W. THE 990 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
FOR THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR 32N32W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
ON THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN THE CANARY ISLANDS AND 40W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE 32N32W LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO 31N29W 27N31W
TO 23N36W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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