[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED JAN 27 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM S LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W TO 4N20W
3N35W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S46W. PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM EQ-6N
BETWEEN 4W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 26W-29W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM EQ-3S BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N ALABAMA NEAR
34N87W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W GULF N OF 23N AND W
OF 96W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS
ALONG 85W PRODUCING SW TO W UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN 24
HOURS DUE TO RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL
CUBA ALONG 22N76W 21N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND OVER
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA N OF CENTRAL GUATEMALA. A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO
EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO
HONDURAS ALONG 12N60W 16N75W 15N85W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THIS LINE. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 81W-84W. CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA PRESENTLY HAS FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 84W IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN SEA. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N59W TO THE S BAHAMAS
ALONG 25N67W 22N74W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO
CENTRAL CUBA AT 22N76W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF
THE FRONTS. A 1024 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 27N55W. FURTHER EAST A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E
ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N30W 29N28W 23N30W
16N40W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO 12N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM 25N-32N BETWEEN 23W-28W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. A 1005 MB LOW
IS W OF THE ABOVE FRONT NEAR 29N36W. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THIS LOW TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N32W
25N33W 21N40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THIS FRONT.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 27N BETWEEN
25W-43W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W
OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
29N34W. A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS S TO 17N34W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER
THE TROPICAL E ATLANTIC E OF 50W FROM EQ-17N. EXPECT ALL FRONTAL
SYSTEMS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOUR WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA











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