[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 261740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 2N30W 2N40W
TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 14W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 23W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA
NEAR 30N93W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF S OF
24N AND W OF 93W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
SKIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A TROUGH IS OVER THE
GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE
TEXAS COAST IN 24 HOURS DUE TO RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO
N HONDURAS ALONG 22N79W 19N84W 15N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N60W
16N68W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A
1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 4N74W. CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FRESH TRADEWINDS OF
17-21 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS
ALONG 68W IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE
FRONTAL SYSTEMS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF HISPANIOLA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA
AT 22N79W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A
1027 MB HIGH IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N55W.
FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 28N31W 17N45W 17N50W 15N60W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N53W 15N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE COLD
FRONT N OF 25N. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM N OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO OVER THE E
ATLANTIC FROM 32N20W TO 20N25W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS
OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 45W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N
BETWEEN 30W-45W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-30W. ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...BOTH
FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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