[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260558
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0430 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE AFRICA NEAR 8N11W
ALONG 5N22W 3N34W 1N42W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 2S47W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N
BETWEEN 14W-17W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 22W-30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN
27W-32W...AND BETWEEN 36W-38W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO FROM
3N-5N BETWEEN 35W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT HAS NOW PUSHED INTO THE
SW N ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1018
MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR 26N92W PROVIDING EXTREMELY CLEAR
SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE BASIN. ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW OF
10-15 KT IS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT...MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW
PREVAILS AROUND THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN
CONUS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES
ACROSS THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC ACROSS
CUBA E OF HAVANA NEAR 23N80W CONTINUING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO N CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 15N86W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
FRONT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT ACROSS HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS. A DYING STATIONARY
FRONT LINES THE NE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES
THROUGH THE MARTINIQUE PASSAGE NEAR 15N61W CONTINUING W TO S OF
HAITI NEAR 18N73W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM S OF THE
FRONT AND 180 NM N OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH CLEAR SKIES
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AND SUBSIDENCE AIR AROUND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 67W. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE E AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE COLD
FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EWD ALONG WITH
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AS OF 0300 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N74W CONTINUING SW ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS TO ERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W AND INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N WITH SIMILAR ACTIVITY WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT S OF 28N. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ALSO
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
DOWN THE ERN CONUS SUPPORTS THE FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E ALONG
67W IS FURTHER SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FARTHER E...A SURFACE RIDGE IS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT AND A SECOND FRONT ACROSS THE ERN
ATLC. THE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N57W AND IS
SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG 67W. THE SECOND COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N32W CONTINUING SW ALONG 21N40W TO E OF
THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 16N55W WHERE IT BECOMES A DYING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY INTO THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS N OF 24N
WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM BEHIND THE FRONT ELSEWHERE.
THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG
39W. THIS UPPER TROUGH MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG
THE ITCZ.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND OFF THE
COAST OF N FLORIDA N OF 28N W OF 78W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN
THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
N OF 29N W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N62W. BESIDES THE SHOWERS OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THIS
PORTION OF THE BASIN ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH AXIS ALONG 73W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM A
990 MB LOW ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N38W CONTINUING
ALONG 22N45W 17N55W TO THE NRN LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N65W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT E OF 50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
AXIS ALONG 43W SUPPORTS THE FRONT...AND MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING
THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WRN HALF OF THE ITCZ. FARTHER
E...ANOTHER SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OFF
THE N COAST OF SPAIN. THIS SURFACE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 25W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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