[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 251720
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 1N40W 1S50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN
10W-15W...AND FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 27W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA TO W CUBA
AND CONTINUES TO HONDURAS ALONG 28N80W 22N84W 19N86W 16N86W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT FROM S
FLORIDA TO W CUBA AT 22N84W. AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. 10-15 NW
SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF
THE FRONT WHILE 20 KT S WINDS ARE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA E
OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 90W PRODUCING MOSTLY WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BE E OF THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 12 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS
ALONG 22N84W 19N86W 16N86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A WEAK STATIONARY
FRONT IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 15N60W 17N68W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N76W. CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA HAS MOSTLY FRESH TRADEWINDS OF 17-21 KT. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS ALONG 72W IS OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING DEEP
CONVECTION. EXPECT...BOTH FRONTAL SYSTEMS TO BECOME STATIONARY
AND PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SAME GENERAL AREAS FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N77W 28N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 29N E OF FRONT TO 72W. A 1027 MB HIGH IS
ALSO OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N60W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG
32N34W 22N40W 17N50W 15N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS ALSO OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 35N20W
TO 22N22W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W. A
RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC FROM EQ-20N. EXPECT...BOTH FRONTS TO
MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA







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