[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 222351
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI JAN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N09W 6N15W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 47W AND INTO THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S50W. NO AREAS OF
ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM MELBOURNE TO VENICE FLORIDA AND CONTINUES SW INTO
THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 26N85W. IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT
TO 26N91W AND THEN AS A WARM FRONT TO THE TEXAS GULF COAST NE OF
CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 28N97W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS
ANALYZED SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC
WATERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ENTERING THE
EASTERN GULF NEAR NAPLES THEN SW TO 24N87W. LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 27N AND OVER THE SE
GULF WATERS S OF 27N E OF 89W. ELSEWHERE...POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY AND WARM
FRONT. THESE SURFACE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED ALOFT BY A VIGOROUS
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE W ATLC N OF 30N AND ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES
TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER AS AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC PROVIDING DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE GULF
BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DESPITE THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE GULF OF MOSQUITOS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN. MOSTLY FRESH TRADEWINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO
THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVER THE SW NORTH ATLC N OF 27N
BETWEEN 58W-74W...WITH A NARROW LINE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS
EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA FOCUSED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT IS ANALYZED FROM 30N74W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR STUART.
THIS ACTIVITY LIES EAST OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 990 MB
LOW OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST. THE FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
NEAR 32N71W SW TO 30N79W THEN TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA. A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 37N70W TO
30N76W SUPPORTS THE FRONT AND CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP N OF 27N EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SW
NORTH ATLC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED NORTH OF PUERTO RICO
FROM 23N67W TO 19N67W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MAINLY EAST OF THE
SURFACE FEATURE WITHIN 120 NM. FARTHER EAST...THE TAIL END OF A
SECOND COLD FRONT CLIPS THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N46W TO
31N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE REMAINING N OF 30N BETWEEN 43W-56W
IN THE VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS
PRESENT ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N43W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING OVERALL
FAIR WEATHER S OF 30N BETWEEN 35W-60W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
SLICES INTO THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLC EXTENDING
FROM A 1010 MB LOW OFF THE SW PORTUGAL COAST ENTERING THE AREA
NEAR 32N17W AND CONTINUING SW TO 28N33W. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT ARE CONTINUING TO DISSIPATE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN




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