[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220607
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI JAN 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE NORTHWESTERN LIBERIA COAST ALONG 11W TO 5N20W TO 4N30W
2N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2S50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
5N TO THE EAST OF 50W. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 33W ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 28N. THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE CURRENT GULF OF
MEXICO STATIONARY FRONT...THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOUISIANA GULF
COAST ALONG 90W TO 26N93W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST ALONG 98W...
IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. THE ONLY CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY IS INLAND AND TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN ARKANSAS
AND 80W. UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS ON TOP OF THE
FRONT AND EVERYWHERE IN THE AREA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
15 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N86W 27N85W 28N83W. NO PRECIPITATION
APPEARS NEAR A SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SURFACE TROUGH THAT
GOES 25N95W TO 23N95W TO 20N95W AND 18N96W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS CUBA
AND BEYOND JAMAICA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...BEFORE
TURNING TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. COMPLETELY INDEPENDENT UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF
HISPANIOLA AND THEN EXITING THE AREA ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE
REST OF THE ISLANDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THERE. A SURFACE TROUGH
CURVES FROM 16N63W TO 20N66W...THROUGH THE ANEGADA PASSAGE AND
SLIGHTLY ON TOP OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE BLOWN EASTWARD AND
THEY COVER THE AREA FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 64W AND 65W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED
EASTWARD...TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE U.S.A.
TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 80W AND ARKANSAS. THIS CLOUDINESS
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE BAHAMAS NORTHWARD BETWEEN 64W
AND 80W. MOSTLY WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD UPPER LEVEL FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N...REACHING 40W.
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW EVENTUALLY IS CAUGHT UP IN AN EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N25W TO 29N33W...CONTINUING AS A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT FROM 29N33W TO 27N40W...AND AS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 27N40W TO 25N50W 25N57W AND 23N62W. ANY POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY BE WITH THIS FRONT MUST BE WITHIN 75 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 26N40W 28N30W BEYOND 32N20W IN THE
CLOUDINESS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT



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