[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190546
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE JAN 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE SIERRA LEONE/LIBERIA BORDER NEAR 7N11W 4N20W 2N30W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 40W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
3S46W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 3N AT THE
PRIME MERIDIAN...5N10W 7N17W 4N28W 4N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO 25N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
REACHES MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 20N. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI-TO-25N94W TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS TO
THE EAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NORTHERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SURROUNDS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO MOVES AROUND A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA.
A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY PART OF THE CLIMATOLOGY
FOR THE AREA...IS ALONG 79W FROM PANAMA TO 17N. SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
78W AND COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN
83W AND 85W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE WEST OF 49W. TWO COLD FRONTS AND ONE SURFACE ARE IN THE AREA
UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. THE FIRST FRONT IS THE
ORIGINAL ONE...PASSING THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N70W TO CAT ISLAND IN
THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N66W 24N69W 21N71W.
THE SECOND FRONT PROVIDES A RE-INFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR...
THROUGH 32N68W TO 30N74W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE TO
THE NORTHWEST OF 27N80W 28N70W BEYOND 32N62W. SHOWERS ARE
CONFINED TO THE AREA FROM 23N TO 24N ALONG 68W NEAR THE SURFACE
TROUGH. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N19W TO 25N21W TO
18N32W. THE COLD FRONT FROM 24 HOURS AGO THAT WAS BEING
SUPPORTED BY THIS TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED COMPLETELY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
MT





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