[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 172354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SUN JAN 17 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS FROM LIBERIA AT 6N10W TO 2N30W 1N40W TO NE
BRAZIL AT EQ50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 9W-10W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM
3N-4N BETWEEN 19W-23W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA TO BEYOND W CUBA ALONG 25N80W 23N82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1019 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 22N94W. OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS N OF 25N AND E OF
90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF
WITH AXIS ALONG 80W PRODUCING SW WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE. A
90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM SE TEXAS TO N
FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE HIGH TO MOVE TO S LOUISIANA IN 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 21N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM W CUBA TO N HONDURAS
ALONG 23N81W 20N85W 16N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N
OF THE FRONT. FURTHER E...THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM N OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO
PUERTO RICO...TO BEYOND GUADELOUPE PRODUCING MORE RAIN WITHIN 30
NM OF THE TROUGH. STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE
REMAINDER OF CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 32N75W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT
25N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1024
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 28N57W. A COLD
FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N17W TO 25N30W. A STATIONARY
FRONT CONTINUES W TO 15N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N60W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
OF THE FRONTS AND TROUGH. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-50W. EXPECT...THE TWO
SURFACE FRONTS TO MOVE SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN
AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA





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