[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162345
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE IVORY COAST NEAR 5N7W TO
3N30W TO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 6W-10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 1N-3N
BETWEEN 25W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1004 MB LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI
NEAR 30N89W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 25N86W 20N88W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS E
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BEYOND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 31N80W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 83W-86W. RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS
RAIN OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES N OF 28N E OF 94W. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT OVER THE NE
GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N AND E OF
THE COLD FRONT. 15-20 KT CYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW
IS W OF 90W. THE BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
GULF E OF 90W. A 90-110 KT UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM N
MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL GULF TO BEYOND LOUISIANA. A BAND OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 23N E OF 90W.
EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO BELIZE
IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO THE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE
NE GULF WILL DIMINISH IN 06 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A FRONTAL TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO PUERTO RICO...TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
PRODUCING MORE RAIN N OF 18N AND E OF 71W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL E OF THE COLD FRONT. STRONG TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A GALE IS ALONG THE COAST OF
NORTH COLOMBIA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 74W-77W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT...CONTINUED RAIN OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE RAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO THE COLD
FRONT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA AT 30N80W TO 31N75W. A 1025
MB HIGH IS IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 30N64W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N27W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM
THE LOW CENTER TO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 30N27W 20N40W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 17N50W
18N60W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONTS. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS W OF 55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 20W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER WEST
AFRICA NEAR 21N7W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 9N57W. EXPECT...THE TWO SURFACE FRONTS TO MOVE
SLOWLY E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net