[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT JAN 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1130 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 4N8W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 2N20W 3N30W
2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ49W. MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF NEAR
THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AT 29N91W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH
FROM THE LOW CENTER TO BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS EAST-NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE NE GULF
NEAR 29N83W AND CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN NORTH OF 24N...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...WHERE DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS ENTERING THE COAST FROM MISSISSIPPI TO
THE WEST CENTRAL COAST OF FLORIDA. SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS THIS SURFACE LOW BEEN SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW...FURTHER HELPING WITH LIFTING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE TO THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING 20-25 KT WINDS OVER MOST OF
THE BASIN. WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT ARE FROM THE WEST. TO THE
EAST OF THE COLD FRONT AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...WINDS
ARE COMING FROM THE EAST. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORMS SHOW EASTERLY
GALE FORCE WINDS NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 91W. IN 24 HOURS
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHEAST TRAJECTORY TO CENTRAL
TENNESSEE...WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MORE RAIN WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS
SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION OVER MOST OF THE AREA. ONLY WEAK TO
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN SEA BASIN AS
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS NEAR THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE BAND OF
CLOUDS RELATED TO THIS FRONT IS SEEN AS FAR WEST AS HAITI NEAR
PORT AU PRINCE. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SCATTER
SHOWERS OVER THE ISLAND OF PUERTO RICO. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING
EASTWARD AT ABOUT 20 KT. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW
EASTERLY WINDS 15 TO 20 KT OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 250 NM OFF THE COAST OF NORTH
COLOMBIA...FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W...EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...SUPPORTED BY A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF 50W.
THEREFORE...FAIR WEATHER WITH MULTI-LAYER CLOUDS IS SEEN NORTH
OF 20N WEST OF 40W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA
THROUGH 32N28W AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 26N34W 21N40W 18N48W
CONTINUING WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN THROUGH 17N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING THIS FRONT. WEAK CONVECTION IS
FOUND WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. MODERATE
CONVECTION IS HAPPENING NORTH OF 30N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EASTWARD WITH WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN IT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
INLAND NEAR MOROCCO. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO MOVES TOWARDS EASTERN UNITED STATES.
GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THIS REGION NORTH OF
29N WEST OF 77W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN THIS REGION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net