[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI JAN 15 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 4N25W 2N39W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR NEAR 46W THEN TO 1N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS...STRONGEST W OF 90W AS PER A RECENT
15/0300 UTC ASCAT PASS...COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN A
SURFACE RIDGE POSITIONED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLC
WATERS AND A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NE MEXICO.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 97W THAT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
AND SUSTAIN NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GULF N OF 23N W OF 92W. AS THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ROTATES EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE LOW
IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AND SLOWLY MOVE NE TO
INLAND ACROSS THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST BY LATE SATURDAY. AN
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW TO THE SOUTHERN
GULF WATERS AND BAY OF CAMPECHE PROVIDING FOR STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS W OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER
PUERTO RICO TO 17N69W AND IS PROVIDING A LOW-LEVEL FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 64W-71W. SAN JUAN DOPPLER
RADAR SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO TRAIN OVER THE
ISLAND WITH FLOODING POTENTIAL PERSISTING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES CONTINUE S OF 17N ACROSS THE
EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONVERGING W OF 80W TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. ALOFT...A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION
ENCOMPASSES MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN ANCHORED ON AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 14N67W. THIS OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN IS PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE E OF 80W WITH ONLY A FEW
AREAS OF ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY
TRADES...MOST NOTABLY FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 67W-72W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N71W
DOMINATES THE W ATLC WATERS AND IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER N OF 22N W OF 60W. A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION
AREA TO THE EAST IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N32W AND EXTENDS SW
TO 24N48W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE US/UK
VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED ALOFT BY
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS THAT DIPS TO 23N BETWEEN 35W-50W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ALONG AND WITHIN 200 NM NW OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 200 NM E
OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SW FROM A
1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 33N05W. THE
RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES SW FROM THE HIGH CENTER ACROSS THE CANARY
ISLANDS TO NEAR 20N40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





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