[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 14 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 3N20W 1N40W EQ50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 29W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N78W
PRODUCING 10-15 KT E-SE SURFACE WINDS. RAIN AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN
94W-96W...AND FROM 25N-27N BETWEEN 94W-96W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE
BACK SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PRODUCING SW FLOW. A 110 KT
UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NORTH
FLORIDA. A BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. SIMILAR HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER TEXAS AND THE NW GULF N OF
23N AND W OF 92W. EXPECT...SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT OVER
THE CLEAR AREAS...AND CONTINUED WARMING TOMORROW WITH AN INFLUX
OF TROPICAL MOISTURE AND SHOWERS ADVECTING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN
TO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS PRODUCING MORE RAIN N OF 17N AND E OF 70W.
SIMILAR OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA N OF 10N AND W OF 80W. FRESH TO STRONG
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 11N70W
DOMINATING THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL WINDS.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA EXCEPT OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL WHERE OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE NOTED. EXPECT...THE RAIN
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO DRIFT SLIGHTLY N OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED RAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC DUE TO THE 1027 MB HIGH
CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. A COLD FRONT IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N38W TO 25N50W TO 21N60W. A
STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO PUERTO RICO. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N17W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM
THE HIGH CENTER TO 26N30W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
VENEZUELA TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 8N43W WITH TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
NE TO 15N30W. EXPECT THE SURFACE FRONT TO MOVE SLOWLY E TO
32N30W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA



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