[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU JAN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM WEST AFRICA NEAR THE NORTHERN
COAST OF LIBERIA AT 6N11W CONTINUING WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W
2N40W TO NORTHEAST BRAZIL NEAR ILHA DE MARAJO AT EQ50W. WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FOUND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 20W TO 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF.
THIS FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF 1017 MB NEAR 30N89W THROUGH 27N93W TO THE NORTHERN MEXICO
COAST NEAR 24N97W...WHERE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES
SOUTH ALONG THE MEXICO COAST TO THE CITY OF NAUTIA NEAR 20N96W.
DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD LINE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT...GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE DEVELOPING AND EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...WINDS FROM THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 KT ARE OBSERVED. ACROSS THE EASTERN
BASIN...A SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER MOST OF THE EAST
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST...THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND GRADUALLY
SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BY NOON FRIDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION FROM HAPPENING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE AND LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...WEAK CONVECTION IS BEEN TRIGGERED OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BASIN BY A SHALLOW STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERING THE NORTHEAST BASIN ACROSS THE ISLAND OF ST. THOMAS
NEAR 18N65W AND EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD TO 16N68W. THEN...IT
CONTINUES AS A SHEAR LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N75W 13N80W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF COSTA
RICA NEAR 10N83W. INFRA-RED IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVERGENCE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. DOPPLER
RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE ACTIVITY BY SHOWING WEAK TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. RADAR SHOWS THESE SHOWERS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN
ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER FLORIDA
ENTERS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THIS REGION NEAR 32N45W AND
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ALONG 28N50W 25N55W 23N60W...BECOMING
STATIONARY FROM THIS POINT INTO THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS.
INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODERATE CONVECTION
INDICATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS FOUND TO THE EAST
OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 28N. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION WITHIN AND AHEAD
OF IT. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A
SURFACE 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS ANALYZED NEAR 27N30W...BRINGING
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN ATLANTIC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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