[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071154
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU JAN 07 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM COASTAL LIBERIA NEAR 7N11W TO 6N23W TO 2N40W TO THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1N51W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N13W 6N20W 4N26W 4N30W 2N40W 1N51W. OTHER
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
1N TO 4N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 7W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS MOVING WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW...COVERING MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N...ACROSS FLORIDA PRACTICALLY
EVERYWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR FROM TEXAS INTO THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TOWARD THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT...NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...IS FORECAST
TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS AFTER 07/1200 UTC...
BRINGING GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE WEST OF IT AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST OF A LINE
THAT EXTENDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS. A SHEAR AXIS/REMNANT
CLOUD LINE STRETCHES FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
16N77W TO NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS MOVE FROM 15N80W INTO NICARAGUA AND COSTA
RICA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO 16N69W
TO THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF NORTHEASTERN COASTAL COLOMBIA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N72W 19N66W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN THE U.S.A. EAST COAST AND
THE LINE FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR 21N77W TO 27N60W BEYOND 32N49W.
THE TROUGH FOR THIS CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 31N50W TO 23N61W TO 20N64W AND 20N68W.
A SHEAR AXIS/REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF
COSTA RICA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN
46W AND 50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MOROCCO NEAR
30N9W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH MAURITANIA COAST NEAR 18N16W
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 12N30W TO 4N40W TO 3N50W.
LARGE-SCALE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N48W 19N68W FRONT...AROUND A 1022 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 25N34W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

MT



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