[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST WED JAN 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON THE 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 5N21W 3N32W 2N41W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
20W-22W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 2N-4N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NORTH TO SOUTH ELONGATED SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE
THE GULF OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH OVER NRN MISSOURI.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN LOWER THAN NORMAL WITH FREEZE
WARNINGS ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE GULF COAST STATES. ANTI-CYCLONIC
SURFACE FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE UP TO 15 KT. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE ACROSS THE NRN GULF WITH AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IN MAINLY WLY FLOW ALOFT IS
BEGINNING TO SEEP ACROSS THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS. EXPECT HIGH PRESSURE TO PERSIST AND SHIFT EWD WITH
CONTINUED COLD TEMPERATURES AS SLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES ACROSS
THE NW GULF WED AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE
OFF THE TEXAS COAST THU WHICH WILL BRING A SECOND BLAST OF COLD
AIR ACROSS THE BASIN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY DRY AND SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED IN THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN NEAR COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. HOWEVER...E PACIFIC
MOISTURE IS BEING DRAWN AROUND THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND AROUND THE SRN EXTEND OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ACROSS THE SW N ATLC SPREADING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN.
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA WHERE IT BECOMES A
SHEAR LINE S OF JAMAICA TO THE NE COAST OF COSTA RICA WITH NE
WINDS UP TO 25 KTS NW OF THE BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH ISOLATES SHOWERS
POSSIBLE UP TO 300 NM NW OF THE BOUNDARY. ELSEWHERE...MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL WITH MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE
E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO SHIFT EWD WITH LITTLE CHANGE
ELSEWHERE OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO COVER THE FAR SW N ATLC
BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM A 1005 MB LOW NE OF BERMUDA
ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ABOUT 180 NM E OF BERMUDA NEAR
32N61W CONTINUING SW TO THE SRN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM A SECOND COLD FRONT NEAR
31N56W CONTINUING SW TO WRN HISPANIOLA WHERE IS CONTINUES AS A
SHEAR LINE INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 36W-65W...WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS N OF 21N BETWEEN 59W-75W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY
SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE W
ATLC AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN
ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO THE AZORES ISLANDS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD BEFORE DIMINISHING. FARTHER E...A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH W OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 27N33W BRINGING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO THE ERN
HALF OF THE BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALTON





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