[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST MON JAN 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 3N25W 1N50W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 13W-16W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN
GULF. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 24N92W TO 19N92W AS
NE TO E WINDS TURN NORTHERLY WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS.
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC SW OF CENTRAL AMERICA. A NARROW STREAM OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS S OF 25N ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO...
THE SOUTHERN GULF...AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ALONG THE TEXAS AND MEXICO GULF
COASTS THROUGH LATE TUESDAY WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
PERSISTING ACROSS THE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT
24-36 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT CROSSES EASTERN CUBA INTO
THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N78W TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NICARAGUA
NEAR 11N84W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE OF NE TO E TRADE WINDS EAST
OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS W OF 75W.
NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...STRONG NE WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE
OCCURRING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THE NW
CARIBBEAN...GULF OF HONDURAS...AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. MOSTLY FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN E OF 75W WITH E TO SE TRADE WINDS UP TO 25 KT.
ALOFT...ZONAL FLOW DOMINATES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION SW OF
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 3N88W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
75W AND CONTINUES TO ENHANCE THE FAIR WEATHER IN PLACE ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES THIS AFTERNOON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC AND
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR
32N43W AND CONTINUES SW TO 25N53W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERING ALONG 22N63W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS
NEAR 21N72W AND ACROSS EASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N76W THEN INTO THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE IS ACROSS THE W ATLC...NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT CONTINUES TO GENERATE POSSIBLE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 21N
W OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ALSO...A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS ROTATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MEAN NORTH ATLC
TROUGH AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 31N72W TO 24N80W.
A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS IS
NOTED IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...
BAHAMAS...AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE W
ATLC. FARTHER EAST...A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLC NEAR 28N31W. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CLIPS THE
FAR NE CORNER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM EAST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS NEAR 28N15W TO BEYOND 32N09W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
HUFFMAN





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