[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281732
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN FEB 28 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 4N20W 3N36W 2N46W CROSSING
THE EQUATOR AND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM
12W-17W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE ITCZ FROM 28W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS AGAIN TAKEN CONTROL OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH ALONG THE SW COAST OF LOUISIANA NEAR
30N93W. BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE E
GULF S OF 28N FROM 82W-88W. THE UPPER TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT THAT PASSED OUT OF THE GULF LAST NIGHT STILL COVERS THE E
GULF E OF 88W WITH AN UPPER RIDGE MOVING OVER THE W GULF
ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION AND COVERING MOST OF MEXICO.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES MOST OF THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA
GIVING THE GULF MOSTLY FAIR BUT COOL WEATHER TODAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF MON MORNING MOVING
RAPIDLY AND EXITING THE GULF BY LATE TUE AS A SECOND FRONT WILL
BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS E CUBA NEAR 20N77W
TO THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90/120 NM E OF THE FRONT AND
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS W OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR
THIS FRONT COVERS THE E GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN N
OF 19N W OF 76W AND PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE
AIR TO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N52W. A RELATIVELY LAX
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADEWINDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THESE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER W PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM PUERTO
RICO TO COSTA RICA TONIGHT AND STALL THEN DISSIPATE AS A SECOND
FRONT WILL ENTER FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG 996 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLC JUST N OF THE REGION NEAR
33N68W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 30N67W ALONG 25N72W
OVER THE S BAHAMA ISLANDS AND ACROSS E CUBA INTO THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 20N77W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF
THE FRONT. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OFF
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N52W
COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 34N54W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM OF
LINE FROM 22N68W TO 31N56W. A WEAKER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N37W ALONG 28N43W TO 26N51W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT BISECTS A
SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 26N24W. A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EMERGES FROM OVER W AFRICA NEAR THE
BORDER OF WESTERN SAHARA/MAURITANIA TO THE JUST N OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS BUT IS NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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