[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261136
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI FEB 26 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N11W 3N30W CROSSING THE EQUATOR
NEAR 44W AND INTO NE BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 9W-19W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N89W. ALOFT...MAINLY W-SW FLOW AND MODERATELY
DRY AIR IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE GULF
SOUTHEAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BRINGING ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS
EASTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY
WINDS TO 20 KT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE WESTERN GULF S OF A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N93W THEN ALONG
THE TEXAS GULF COAST TO CORPUS CHRISTI THAT REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER NORTH TEXAS. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF WATERS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 KT
FOLLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH FAR
EASTERN HISPANIOLA TO 18N69W TO 15N75W TO 12N78W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
WITH MORE CONCENTRATION FOUND IN THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
15N...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF COSTA RICA AND WESTERN PANAMA AND
ALSO OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA N OF 18N BETWEEN 67W-74W. ALOFT...A
BROAD RIDGE CONTROLS THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER
NE VENEZUELA. THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS TO THE WEST ALONG 10N AND
IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW
VENEZUELA ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS MOISTURE AND
AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT PATTERN COUPLED WITH CONVERGENT
EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 13N W
OF 67W. MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS DOMINATE THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE W ATLC NEAR
32N61W AND EXTENDS SSW ALONG 25N63W TO THE FAR EASTERN DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC NEAR 19N69W AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FOUND WITHIN 200 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONT S OF 22N AND N OF 22N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 50W. STRONG NW
WINDS FOLLOW WEST OF THE FRONT WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS MAINLY N OF 22N. ALOFT...THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL NORTH ATLC
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS NE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO BEYOND
32N47W. THIS RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO HELP SUPPORT
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION E OF THE COLD FRONT. A 999 MB LOW
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N34W IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE LOW ALONG 28N32W 23N38W TO A WEAK 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 20N53W...THEN SURFACE TROUGHING SW TO NEAR
17N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINING N OF 22N BETWEEN 22W-34W. ELSEWHERE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH S OF 22N. THIS LOW AND ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS
SUPPORTED ALOFT BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN





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