[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 25 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N25W 2N41W CROSSING THE
EQUATOR AND INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. SMALL CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 8W-21W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HIGH PRESSURE ONCE AGAIN DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1024
MB HIGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THE UPPER TROUGH
SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC COVERS THE GULF N OF 20N
WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS E TEXAS. THE JETSTREAM THAT HAS
BEEN OVER THE GULF FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS BEGINNING TO
SHIFT EASTWARD WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 150 KT OVER THE GULF WITH THE
HIGHEST WINDS FROM 23N-27N E OF 90W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE ALL THAT
REMAIN ACROSS THE GULF S OF 26N AND OVER THE NW GULF W OF 91W.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF FRI NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN FROM THE W ATLC THROUGH THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE E OF JAMAICA ALONG 17N76W TO W PANAMA NEAR THE
BORDER OF COSTA RICA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF THE FRONT. BROAD
UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE
W TROPICAL ATLC ANCHORED INLAND OVER BRAZIL SOUTH AMERICA. THIS
UPPER FLOW IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 45 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. DRY STABLE CONDITIONS
ARE DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N68W EXTENDING ALONG
25N69W ACROSS THE TURKS AND CAICOS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
INTO THE CARIBBEAN. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN AND W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO NEAR 32N58W AND
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA WITHIN 350/400 NM E OF THE FRONT. A STRONG JETSTREAM
WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 165 KT IS OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC N OF A
LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 21N77W 27N61W TO 21N43W THEN NARROWING TO
WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE FROM 26N43W TO 23N36W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 31N45W TO A 1004 MB LOW
NEAR 26N44W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 23N48W CONTINUING SW TO OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE. A WEAK 1014 MB HIGH IS
BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE FRONT NEAR 26N61W. A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH JUST NE
OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 31N11W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALLACE





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