[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN FEB 21 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1000 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM LIBERIA NEAR 5N9W ALONG 2N20W
2N30W 3N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR EQ52W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN
25W-32W...AND FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 34W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE FAR W GULF HAS
DISSIPATED. A WARM FRONT STILL EXTENDS ACROSS THE NRN GULF ALONG
27N86W 29N90W 29N95W. SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE
FRONT FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 84W-90W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 21N90W TO 25N90W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A
1020 MB HIGH OVER NE FLORIDA. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM
BISECTS THE BASIN ALONG 25N WITH ZONAL WLY FLOW. DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE AREA N OF 24N...WHILE E PACIFIC MOISTURE
IS BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE BASIN S OF 24N SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS.
EXPECT THE WARM FRONT TO CONTINUE LIFTING N AS A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER W TEXAS MOVES OVER THE NW GULF WATERS LATER
TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN OVER THE SRN GULF OF MEXICO S
OF A STRONG JETSTREAM IS ALSO MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE NW
CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS RUN
FROM BELIZE TO WRN CUBA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N OF
HISPANIOLA CLIPPING THE WRN TIP OF HAITI. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM S OF THE TROUGH. A DYING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
TO BRING RAIN TO THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS
ACROSS ANGUILLA ALONG 17N TO S OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR
17N69W. RADAR IMAGERY FROM PUERTO RICO INDICATES ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT...AND 30 NM S OF THE FRONT.
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF PANAMA S OF 13N BETWEEN
77W-81W. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY
FAIR WEATHER WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS. ALOFT...ZONAL WLY
FLOW IS ACROSS THE BASIN EMBEDDED WITH MODERATELY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE...BESIDES THE NW CARIBBEAN. EXPECT THE STATIONARY
BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL JETSTREAM ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
ATLC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 33N.
AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AROUND A 1022 MB HIGH
OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND A 1020 MB OVER NE FLORIDA
SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE W ATLC. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NEAR THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ALONG 24N61W
21N69W TO THE NW TIP OF HAITI NEAR 19N74W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS. A COLD FRONT DRAPES ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NE AND CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N12W
ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS ALONG 27N20W 24N34W BECOMING A DYING
COLD FRONT TO 21N47W...AND A DYING STATIONARY FRONT TO ANGUILLA
NEAR 18N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONT E OF 40W...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE. WHILE MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE
BASIN...THE ERN PORTION OF THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW N OF THE AZORES ISLANDS NEAR 46N27W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE S OF THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 18N31W SUPPORTING GENERALLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THIS AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
SENEGAL TO NEAR 1N30W IS SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON






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