[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W ALONG
4N20W 1N30W 2N40W TO THE NE BRAZIL COAST NEAR 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 19W-24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH JUST OFFSHORE OF MOBILE
ALABAMA CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE
TROUGH LINING THE S TEXAS AND MEXICO COASTLINE FROM 27N96W TO
21N97W IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 28N W OF 94W
INDICATED BY RADAR IMAGERY. LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND
THE SURFACE RIDGE...INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WRN GULF. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE GULF AND CENTRAL CONUS IS CARRYING UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF
SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE WRN CONUS AND W MEXICO IS SUPPORTING THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICO COASTLINE...AND WILL ALSO BE
SUPPORTING THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE NW
WATERS LATE SUNDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC IS MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS
THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING HIGH CLOUDS. HOWEVER...THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS EXPERIENCING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER
WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADEWINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
AND SUBSIDENCE AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. A SHEAR
LINE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 17N75W TO
12N81W. CONVERGENCE IN THE WIND SPEEDS ALONG THE AXIS IS
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED ACROSS HISPANIOLA NEAR A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. EXPECT THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE
DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 25N53W 24N59W 22N63W BECOMING
STATIONARY TO CENTRAL DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE
TROUGH IS N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 22N58W TO 19N62W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 250 NM BEHIND...AND 90 NM AHEAD OF
THE FRONT N OF 25N. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
FRONT ELSEWHERE...AND WITHIN 60 NM AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W ATLC IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF NOVA SCOTIA SUPPORTS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE E IS ENHANCING THE LARGE AREA OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY NEAR THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL E OF
THE FRONT N OF 28N W OF 31W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALSO SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATING THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN ANCHORED BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR
22N30W. THE RIDGE IS PROVIDING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
ERN ATLC. A SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS MOST LIKELY
SUPPORTING THE SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ERN ITCZ.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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