[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Thu Feb 18 05:38:03 CST 2010


AXNT20 KNHC 181137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST THU FEB 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N8W 1N26W 2N43W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM N EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ FROM
10W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE E GULF S OF
28N TO THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF
DRAWING MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE S
GULF. THIS IS GENERATING OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS SW OF A LINE FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS TO THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA AND A STRONG JETSTREAM WITH WINDS
OF 90 TO 160 KT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH THE STRONGEST JET
STREAK OVER THE NE GULF. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
CONTROL ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
GALVESTON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC OVER HAITI E OF JAMAICA TO 16N77W WHERE IT
BECOMES A SURFACE TROUGH INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST
OF PANAMA NEAR 9N81W. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT AND S
OF 14N W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.
PATCHES OF BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W CARIBBEAN TO OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE
CARIBBEAN INTO THE W TROPICAL ATLC CONTINUES TO BE DOMINATED BY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA BRINGING DRY
STABLE AIR TO THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN RESULTING CLEAR
SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC NEAR 32N68W EXTENDING SW TO
29N76W AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN BROKEN COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS THAT COVER THE W ATLC W OF 64W. A PREVIOUSLY ESTABLISHED
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N44W EXTENDING SW
ALONG 28N47W TO 26N53W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 24N61W
INTO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER HAITI. BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT S OF 25N
AND WITHIN 90 E OF THE FRONT S OF 22N. THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 200 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N33W ACROSS THE COLD FRONT TO
30N56W. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 24N37W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE






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