[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST TUE FEB 16 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N8W 2N20W 1N40W TO INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 50W. ITCZ IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 16/0300 UTC...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES EXTENDING SW TO INLAND OVER NE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N87W. FRONT REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH
OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF A LINE FROM
TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 27N85W 23N90W TO MEXICO NEAR LAGUNA MADRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
THE UPPER SUPPORT FOR THIS FRONT IS OVER THE E US AND THE N GULF
OF MEXICO N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF GULF DRAWING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO. ALL OF
WHICH IS SUPPORTING A JETSTREAM WITH WINDS OF 90-130 KT ACROSS
THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT
ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER NE MEXICO/SE TEXAS. EXPECT THE
COLD FRONT TO EXIT THE GULF LATER THIS MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO W OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CUBA
NEAR SANTA CLARA TO THE NE TIP OF HONDURAS. SCATTERED PATCHES OF
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE N OF 17N W OF 70W. OTHERWISE...THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND INTO THE W
TROPICAL ATLC. THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW IS BRINGING ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES MAINLY BETWEEN SAINT LUCIA AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AT 16/0300 UTC...COLD FRONT ENTERS THE W ATLC THROUGH 32N76W
EXTENDING SSW OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM VERO BEACH TO
NAPLES BEFORE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED/HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 125 NM E OF THE
FRONT N OF 30N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 68W AND THE WITHIN 150
NM OF LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 26N50W TO 24N68W. HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC AND THE CENTRAL ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 25N53W. THE REMNANTS OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM THE E ATLC THROUGH 31N13W ALONG
27N33W TO 25N46W WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 125 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE



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