[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 131740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 6N10W 2N30W EQ40W 2S45W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF AXIS FROM
18W-21W AND FROM 25W-28W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH FRI. SURFACE PRES
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LOOSEN AS SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF. WINDS ARE DECREASING FROM W TO E
ACROSS THE AREA WITH 20 KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN GULF.
MOST OF THE AREA IS COVERED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. A 120-136 KT JETSTREAM IS ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO
EASTERN HONDURAS. A BAND OF SHOWERS IS WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE
FRONT WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS W OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS. NLY
WINDS 20-25 KT ARE NOTED W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE TO HAITI TO COSTA RICA TONIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE FROM MONA
PASSAGE TO 12N72W SUN NIGHT. OTHERWISE BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA WITH UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE S OF 14N BETWEEN 76W
AND 79W. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH ESE WINDS 5 TO 15 KT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE 986 MB LOW PRES HAS MOVED JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
TO NEAR 33N73W. COLD FRONT ENTERS THE AREA AT 32N70W TO THE SE
BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 21N77W. THE CONVECTION HAS MOVE WELL TO THE
E OF THE FRONT WITHIN 90 NM E OF LINE 30N65W TO 27N69W...WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE N OF 25N
E OF THE FRONT TO 65W AND N OF 27N W OF THE FRONT TO 76W.
W OF THE FRONT W TO NW WINDS 30-45 KT WITH SEAS TO 21 FT AND SLY
WINDS 30-40 KT WITH SEAS TO 16 FT E OF THE FRONT. A 135-150 KT
JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N69W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 70W-45W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
LEVELS IS S OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-70W. FARTHER E A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SW TO 19N46W
THEN DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT TO 17N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 28N. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE ARE N OF 29N W OF THE FRONT TO 44W. IN THE NEXT 12
HOURS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TO THE
EASTERN ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
DGS


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