[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131140
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1140 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W...WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 3N30W EQ40W 2S45W. MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ BETWEEN 17W AND 21W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION...AND
CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NOW...A COOL AND
DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONTINUES TO LOOSEN AS SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH ENTERS THE
NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE GULF. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS
SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN BASIN...BRINGING COOL AND
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS INFLUENCING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EAST OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS
FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO EASTERN HONDURAS ALONG 21N77W
18N81W 15N83W. SCATTER SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 100 NM WEST OF THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT
ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ELSEWHERE EAST
OF THE FRONT...MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 15 KT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
AN OCCLUDED 988 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. THE COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS
SYSTEM EXTENDS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA ALONG 31N71W 26N73W 22N77W. MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 26N TO BEYOND THE DISCUSSION AREA...BETWEEN 67W AND 72W.
SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE
WINDS ARE WITHIN 300 NM SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS UP TO
15 FEET. ALSO...GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 24N WITHIN 180 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT WITH SEAS UP TO 13 FEET. THE LOW CENTER IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE
NEXT 6 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N27W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO
NEAR PUERTO RICO ALONG 23N38W 17N48W 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE
NORTH OF 29N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 44W. IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE BELOW GALE FORCE CRITERIA. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD
TO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ASIDE FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT...ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN...SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. TWO MAIN SURFACE HIGHS ARE
NOTED OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN NEAR 18N25W...AND CENTRAL BASIN
NEAR 22N56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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