[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 AM EST SAT FEB 13 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF SIERRA
LEONE NEAR 8.5N13W...WESTWARD ALONG 4N20W 2N30W 1N40W EQ50W.
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND
21W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 3S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 28W
AND 37W...AND ALSO FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN 43W AND 47W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT PRECIPITATION AND GUSTY
WINDS TO THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOVED OUT OF THE REGION AND
CONTINUES ITS JOURNEY INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. NOW...A COOL AND
DRY AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. SHIP AND OIL PLATFORM
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHERLY WINDS 15 TO 25 KT OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS...COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN
BASIN...BRINGING COOL AND FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS INFLUENCING MOST
OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EAST OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUPPRESSING ANY DEEP STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THIS
REGION. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NORTHWEST
BASIN. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN BELIZE
ALONG 23N82W 19N85W 16N89W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KT ARE NOTED
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE BASIN SHOW 10 TO 20 KT TRADEWINDS OVER
MOST OF THE AREA.

OF SIGNIFICANCE...SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW REMAINS OF
ASH CLOUD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W
AND 65W FROM THE MONTSERRAT SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO. MARINERS
SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AS REDUCED VISIBILITY COULD IMPACT
MARINE OPERATIONS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A 995 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC
CENTERED NEAR 30N76W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE
LOW CENTER ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA ALONG
26N77W 22N80W. MODERATE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CONVERGENCE
AROUND THE LOW COVERS FROM 26N TO BEYOND THE DISCUSSION
AREA...BETWEEN 70W AND 75W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 80 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH OF 27N
WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N31W EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
PUERTO RICO ALONG 24N40W 18N50W 19N62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 50 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE NORTH
OF 28N WEST OF THE FRONT TO 50W. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE IS SUPPORTING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA...WITH TWO MAIN SURFACE 1016 MB HIGHS OVER THE
FAR EASTERN BASIN CENTERED NEAR 22N24W...AND CENTRAL BASIN
CENTERED NEAR 22N55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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