[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 3N20W 1N31W THEN ALONG THE
EQUATOR W OF 38W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N TO THE ITCZ
BETWEEN 10W-15W INCLUDING THE SW COAST OF AFRICA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF 3N W OF 46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 12/1500 UTC...A DEEPENING 997 MB LOW IS IN THE N/CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 26N87W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING S ALONG 22N91W ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND INTO S MEXICO NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC AND A WARM FRONT FROM THE LOW NE NEAR 27N85W THEN E
TO FORT MYERS FLORIDA. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER NE MISSISSIPPI TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF
NEAR 26N92W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE GULF WATERS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO OVER FLORIDA
NEAR TALLAHASSEE. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVER THE AREA N OF 26N
BETWEEN 86W-90W AND WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 25N87W TO OVER S
MEXICO/NW YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N93W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW IS CURRENTLY FALLING WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS AND OVER THE FLORIA PANHANDLE. HIGH
PRESSURE IS BEGINNING TO BUILD S OVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM WITH A 1020 MB HIGH OVER NE TEXAS. COLD AIR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE W GULF BEHIND THE FRONTAL SYSTEM.
THIS LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM IS GOING TO MOVE RAPIDLY E/NE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA CLEARING THE GULF TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY STABLE AIR
GIVING THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE REMNANTS
OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAIN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 18N. THE FRONT CURRENTLY
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE CARIBBEAN LATER
THIS EVENING...THUS SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NOTE OF SIGNIFICANCE...
SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO ON MONTSERRAT IN THE LESSER ANTILLES
ERUPTED YESTERDAY AT 1715 UTC. A LARGE ASH CLOUD REMAINS OVER
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITHIN 45 NM OF A LINE FROM THE SUMMIT TO
16N66W. MARINERS SHOULD EXERCISES CAUTION AS REDUCED VISIBILITY
COULD IMPACT MARINE OPERATIONS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
BROKEN/OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO LOW/FRONTAL SYSTEM
COVER THE W ATLC FROM 28N-33N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER THE SE US.
THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N38W EXTENDING SW ALONG
25N45W TO 19N61W DISSIPATING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO
RICO. THE UPPER SUPPORT OF THIS FRONT IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
MOSTLY N OF THE REGION BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 60/90 NM E OF THE FRONT. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE W OF THE FRONT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC. WEAK
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE E ATLC WITH A 1015 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 21N28W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
WALLACE





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net