[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU FEB 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N10W 2N30W 2N40W 1S50W . WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 8W-26W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS NEAR
35N91W PRODUCING RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE 1005
MB LOW IS CENTERED ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS NEAR 27N97W MOVING
E. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO INLAND MEXICO ALONG
23N98W 20N101W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO THE
E TEXAS COAST NEAR 30N94W. LOW CEILINGS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE W
GULF OF MEXICO AND NE MEXICO N OF 20N BETWEEN 90W-100W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NE GULF AND N
FLORIDA. THE SE GULF AND S FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WITH
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS. EAST OF THE COLD FRONT THE GULF HAS
10-15 KT NE TO E WINDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS... WITH A 110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF. UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT...THE SURFACE LOW TO
DEEPEN TO 998 MB AND MOVE E TO JUST W OF TAMPA FLORIDA IN 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND S FROM THE LOW
CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM HISPANIOLA TO HONDURAS ALONG
20N67W 18N77W 16N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS ARE ALONG THE
COASTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT WINDS
REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION.

OF SIGNIFICANCE...A LARGE VOLCANIC ERUPTION
OCCURRED ON MONTSERRAT SOUFRIERE HILLS AT 1715 UTC TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT A DENSE ASH CLOUD ASCENDED TO A
HIGH ALTITUDE...AND MOVED E TO THE ATLANTIC...DUE TO 50 KT UPPER
LEVEL WINDS. A SIGMET...INDIA 2...HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AVIATION
INTERESTS. PRESENTLY VOLCANIC ASH IS NOTED FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN
56W-62W TO INCLUDE THE ISLAND OF GUADELOUPE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N51W TO HISPANIOLA
ALONG 23N60W 20N67W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE N OF 27N BETWEEN 48W-78W. THE
TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 32N23W TO
29N28W. A 1015 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR THE CANARY
ISLANDS AT 28N20W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE
W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 10W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN
10W-40W WITH AXIS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO EQ30W. EXPECT
THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM
32N35W TO THE LEEWARD ISLAND IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO
EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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