[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST WED FEB 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 5N20W 4N30W 2N40W
CROSSING THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W TO 1S47W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN
8W-10W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN
10W-38W.

...DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA NEAR
36N95W PRODUCING RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED OVER THE W GULF FROM S TEXAS TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ALONG 26N97W 20N95W. OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE
OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE E GULF AND FLORIDA HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER. EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH THE GULF HAS 10-15 KT NE
WINDS WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
PREVAILS...WITH A 110-130 KT JET OVER THE N GULF. PATCHES OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE GULF
EXCEPT OVER THE SE GULF...FLORIDA...AND W CUBA WHERE SUBSIDENCE
REMAINS. EXPECT...A SURFACE LOW TO FORM OVER THE W GULF NEAR S
TEXAS IN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA TO HONDURAS ALONG 21N77W 16N87W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS ARE OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH 20-25 KT
WINDS REMAINING ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SUPPRESSING
DEEP CONVECTION. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM HAITI TO
HONDURAS IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN.
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N62W TO E CUBA ALONG
26N70W 21N77W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE
FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 65W-78W. A 1020
MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N68W. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N33W TO N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 27N40W 21N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM N OF THE FRONT. A 1017 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC W OF THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N21W. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 55W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN
35W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-35W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC FROM THE EQUATOR TO 20N BETWEEN 10W-40W WITH AXIS FROM
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO EQ30W. EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC COLD
FRONT TO BE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N48W TO HAITI IN 24
HOURS WITH SHOWERS. ALSO EXPECT THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
TO MOVE E AND REACH 32N20W IN 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA




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