[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 091745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE FEB 09 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1745 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ IS CENTERED FROM THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N12W...WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 2N30W 1N40W...INTO THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
ITCZ FROM 23W TO 27W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SUPPORTING A 1010 MB LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA. A
COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER LOW TO NEAR 26N91W.
THIS SYSTEM IS RE-ENFORCING ANOTHER 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR 28N85W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ALONG 24N90W TO
VERACRUZ MEXICO. THESE TWO LOWS ARE FORECAST TO MERGE OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...NORTH OF 28. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS RELATED TO STRONG CONVERGENCE EMBEDDED AROUND THE
1008 MB LOW...WHILE A LINE OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT TO 93S.

SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ADVECTING ADVECTING INTO THE GULF.
THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING A WARM AND MOIST UPPER LEVEL AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF NORTH OF 89N. MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AND SOUTHERLY FLOW 10 TO 20 KT EAST OF THE FRONT. IN 24
HOURS THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WITH CONVECTION...LEAVING A COOL AND DRY AIRMASS
ACROSS THE REGION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS DOMINATING THE
WEATHER OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING
SUBSIDENT DRY AIR ALOFT...SUPPRESSING ANY SOURCE OF CONVECTION
ACROSS THE REGION. LOOK FOR THIS FEATURE TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
MOST OF THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT SURFACE...MARINE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW EASTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE EAST AND
CENTRAL BASIN...EAST OF 75W. WINDS OVER THE NORTHWEST
BASIN...NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 75W...ARE SHIFTING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15 KT...DUE TO A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR NORTHWEST
BASIN WITH SOME CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS SUPPORTING
A SURFACE 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N67W. THIS FEATURE IS
BRINGING FAIR WEATHER AND CLEARING SKIES ACROSS THE THE AREA
WEST OF 54W. A MORE PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE FAR
EASTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 30N23W.
FAIR WEATHER IS OBSERVED EAST OF 40W.

IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS...A COLD FRONT ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N41W...AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG 25N50W 22N60W...BECOMING
STATIONARY TO 21N66W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT...AND WITHIN 120 NM NORTH OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO ENTER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTIVE WEATHER TO THE WESTERN BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA




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