[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2345 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE SOUTHERN SIERRA LEONE COAST NEAR 7N12W WESTWARD ALONG
6N20W 3N30W 1N40W...CROSSING THE EQUATOR INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 1S47W. MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM NORTH OF
THE ITCZ FROM 25W TO 45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION...RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NOTED
OVER THE GULF. AT SURFACE...MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW COOL
AND DRY NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...EXCEPT
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 20 KT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIR OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS INFLUENCING THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...BRINGING DRY SUBSIDENT AIR
ALOFT TO THESE REGIONS. AT SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
NORTHWEST BASIN. THIS FRONT IS ANALYZED ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 21N78W...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO NORTH
CENTRAL HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. SCATTER SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE EAST OF 78W...FAIR
WEATHER WITH A FEW WEAK ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE NOTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY. MARINE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
WINDS 10 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NORTHWEST WINDS 10
TO 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT
THIS FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASIN
AS IT WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING AN OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM NEAR 38N70W. A COLD FRONT RELATED TO THIS SYSTEM ENTERS
THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N64W CONTINUING
SOUTHWEST...CROSSING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W TO CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 21N78W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE NORTH
OF 28N EAST OF THE FRONT TO 65W...WITH SEAS 10 TO 16 FEET. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND EASTWARD WITH CONVECTION
AHEAD OF IT.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
MOST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...SUPPORTING A SURFACE 1017 MB HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR 26N49W. NEVERTHELESS...A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N25W AND CONTINUES SOUTHWEST ALONG
25N35W 21N40W 20N45W 19N50W 20N60W. WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION
IS 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 25N. SCATTER WEAK SHOWERS
ARE 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT SOUTH OF 25N. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO EXPAND EASTWARD
WITH CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$

GARCIA


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