[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED FEB 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 4N20W 2N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N BETWEEN 22W-25W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH IS JUST INLAND OVER NE MEXICO
ALONG 26N98W 20N98W. LOW CEILINGS...RAIN...AND DRIZZLE ARE
OVER THE W GULF AND N MEXICO W OF 90W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER INLAND OVER MEXICO W OF 98W. ELSEWHERE...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
AT 23N80W MOVING E. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS E IF
THE GULF OVER THE N BAHAMAS. WINDS OVER THE E GULF N OF THE
FRONT ARE NORTHERLY 15-20 KT. WINDS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W ARE
EASTERLY 15-20 KT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 60'S OVER S
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS... WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
40'S AND 50'S OVER THE NORTH GULF STATES TO INCLUDE N FLORIDA.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ZONAL FLOW PREVAIL WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE W GULF AND MEXICO W OF 87W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. EXPECT OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROUGH OVER THE W GULF TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH CONVECTION...AND A 1007 MB LOW TO BE ON
THE TROUGH AXIS N OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA N OF PANAMA. MORE SHOWERS ARE
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 68W. A FAIRLY TIGHT
SURFACE GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW WITH STRONG
SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN.
EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF
82W FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1004 MB GALE LOW IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA
NEAR 33N72W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
NEAR 23N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE FRONT FROM 26N-32N
BETWEEN 64W-71W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS E FROM THE LOW ALONG
33N69W 30N63W 28N57W. FURTHER E...A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N31W TO 28N40W 27N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE FRONTS. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N34W. A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED
OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 32N14W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
32N-35N BETWEEN 8W-13W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC W OF 40W. A
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NE OF  THE CANARY ISLANDS AT 33N12W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS SW TO 8N30W. EXPECT IN 24
HOURS...FOR CONVECTION TO BE E OF THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT N OF
25N BETWEEN 51W-58W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA







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