[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011116
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON FEB 01 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 4N20W 1N40W EQ50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 10W-13W...
FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 18W-24W...AND FROM EQ-2N BETWEEN 37W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ALONG 24N80W 23N85W
20N87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE SE GULF OF MEXICO S OF 26N AND E OF 90W. A 1029 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER OHIO NEAR 39N83W PRODUCING MOSTLY 15 KT EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE STILL IN
THE 70'S OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ARE IN THE 30'S AND 40'S OVER
THE NORTH GULF STATES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL
WINDS PREVAIL WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT BACK NORTH TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 0900 UTC...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS ALONG 20N87W 15N88W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE FURTHER S
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13N W OF 78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA ...AND
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 15N E OF 65W. A 1005 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W. A FAIRLY TIGHT SURFACE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING STRONG TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...SW UPPER LEVEL WINDS PREVAILS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND
THE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E
CARIBBEAN E OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...NW
CARIBBEAN...AND W CUBA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE FRONT.
ALSO EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL
AMERICA W OF 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N53W TO THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA ALONG 26N70W 24N80W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1022 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N49W. A 1002 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N23W. AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS N
OF THE LOW CENTER ALONG 31N24W 33N17W 31N14W. A COLD FRONT
CONTINUES S TO 27N15W 19N24W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE IN VICINITY OF THE LOW CENTER FROM 25N-30N
BETWEEN 18W-25W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 45 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND W OF 40W. A UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 26N23W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS
N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-40W. ZONAL FLOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLANTIC. EXPECT...THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM 32N42W TO THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA WITH SHOWERS. EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
N OF THIS FRONT. ALSO EXPECT THE E ATLANTIC LOW AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM TO MOVE NE TO THE CANARY ISLANDS NEAR 30N19N IN 24 HOURS
WITH SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE.

$$
FORMOSA






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