[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THROUGH THE SOUTHERN IVORY COAST AND SOUTHERN LIBERIA...
TO 3N20W 4N37W...THROUGH THE EQUATOR ALONG 50W INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
SOUTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 13W...AND OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THAT ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS WELL INLAND...COVERING
THE CENTRAL U.S.A. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE WIND FLOW STARTS AS SOUTHWESTERLY FROM MEXICO TO 90W.
THE WIND FLOW CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY AS IT
PASSES BEYOND FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT NOW IS IN THE TEXAS GULF
COASTAL PLAINS. A SURFACE TROUGH HUGS THE TEXAS GULF COAST AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO A 1005 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE 1005 MB LOW CENTER TO THE MEXICO GULF COASTAL
WATERS NEAR 20N96W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...TO
THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 88W. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE
WEST OF 88W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 16N. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE
FROM THE LAST COLD FRONT...WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH DOMINICA TO 14N65W 14N70W
14N80W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TOWARD THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE REACHING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-SIDE SHORES OF
THE ISLANDS FROM HISPANIOLA TO PUERTO RICO AND ANGUILLA AND
BARBUDA. SIMILAR CLOUDS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...
REACHING CUBA TO THE EAST OF 78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N41W
TO 28N55W AND 28N76W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 26N44W 23N62W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 27N40W TO 25N50W. A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N29W TO 24N40W 18N53W...
BECOMING REMNANT CLOUD LINE AND CONTINUING INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA CROSSING THE SOUTHERN TIP OF DOMINICA...TO 14N72W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N27W TO 24N38W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 24N38W 20N51W 16N55W 15N60W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND
FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE
COLD FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE GOES FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N14W TO 30N18W TO 24N27W AND 22N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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