[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI DEC 31 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 6N8W 3N19W 3N33W 1N42W EQ51W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N TO S OF THE EQUATOR E OF 6W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE W ATLC COVERING THE FAR E GULF
TO 85W GIVING THE ENTIRE GULF SE SURFACE FLOW. THE GULF IS UNDER
SW FLOW ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AN UPPER TROUGH
IS MOVING ACROSS TEXAS TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SUPPORTING THE
NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE GULF LATE TONIGHT.
BROKEN/OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
REPORTS OF LIGHT FOG AND HAZE ARE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF
87W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
THIS MORNING.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANT CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM A RECENT
FRONTAL PASSAGE ARE IN THE NE CARIBBEAN WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
FROM 15N72W TO ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR GUADELOUPE INTO
CENTRAL ATLC. THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE CARIBBEAN ARE DOMINATED BY
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE GIVING THE CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. A
1007 MB SURFACE LOW JUST S OF PANAMA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE SPREADING N
TO ALONG THE N COAST OF PANAMA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE W ATLC W OF 73W. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 55W TO OVER THE FAR E GULF
OF MEXICO ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH N OF THE REGION OFF THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 25N BETWEEN 45W-75W
SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
32N50W EXTENDING ALONG 31N60W TO 31N69W THEN DISSIPATES TO NEAR
32N77W WITH NO SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A REMNANT
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE E ATLC NEAR 32N28W EXTENDING TO 22N45W
WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 17N61W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR
28N20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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