[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310000
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 30 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR
7N13W WESTWARD ALONG 5N20W 4N30W 3N40W 3N50W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 5N E OF
17W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH DRY AIR COVERING THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PART OF THE GULF.
THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. FOR THE CENTER AND
EASTERN SIDE OF THE GULF ... IR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 15-25 KT THE HALF WESTERN PART OF THE BASIN W OF 90W.
SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF
E OF 90W...INFLUENCED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC...PROVIDING A WARMER 15-20 KT SE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
IT IS EXPECTED THAT FOR THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT WILL BE
ENTERING THE NW GULF FRI AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN ADVECTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 60W AND 85W...MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION  ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT CLOUD LINE FROM
THE LAST COLD FRONT...WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE
THAT PASSES THROUGH 18N60W 16N70W TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER PRECIPITATION COVER PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS
OCCURRING IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS
BEEN EMANATING FROM AN EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 5N78W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N55W TO
27N58W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N56W TO 32N67W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING ALONG 32N
TO THE GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N74W TO 28N78W. NO DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N31W TO 27N40W
AND 22N46W...BECOMING STATIONARY AND CONTINUING TO ANTIGUA IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM TO
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W
TO 24N40W 21N50W BEYOND 18N60W. THE REMNANT CLOUD LINE THAT
CONTINUES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA SIMPLY IS THE EXTENSION
OF THE CLOUDINESS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 27N73W TO 23N56W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE COLD
FRONT...MOVING AROUND A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 26N24W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

RAMOS/MT




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